Economia & Energia
Ano VIII -No 45:
Julho-agosto 2004  
ISSN 1518-2932

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A Prospectiva Tecnológica: Previsão com um Simples Modelo Matemático.

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Anexo a Artigo

Anexo 1 -
LISTA DE PUBLICAÇÕES de CESARE MARCHETTI* *

·       Round Table on Direct Production of Hydrogen with Nuclear Heat. EUR/C-IS/1062/1/69.e. Ispra, Italy: Comission of the European Community, EURATOM Joint Research Center Ispra (1969).

·       Hydrogen, key to the energy market (coauthor G. de Beni). Scientific and Technical Review of the European Communities, Euro Spectra IX (2): 46-50 (1970).

·       Hydrogen, master key to the energy market. Scientific and Technical Review of the European Communities, Euro Spectra X (4): 177-129 (1971).

·       Resume of my interview at the Eighth Scientific Committee. EUR/C-IS/399/72.e. Ispra, Italy: Commission of the European Community, EURATOM Joint Research Center Ispra (1972).

·       Mark-1, a Chemical Process to Decompose Water Using Nuclear Heat (coauthor G. de Beni). EUR/C-IS/722/72.e. Ispra, Italy: Commission of the European Community, EURATOM Joint Research Center Ispra (1972).

·       Hydrogen and energy. Chemical Economy and Engineering Review 5(1):7-25 (1973).

·       The hydrogen energy system. In Symposium on Energy Sources. Proceedings, S. Hontzeas (ed.). Regina, Canada: University of Saskatchewan (1973).

·       Gas: the great energy asset (coauthors C. Rinaldi and A. Schneiders). Scientific and Technical Review of the European Communities, Euro Spectra 12(4):107-13 (1973).

·       About the Use of Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier. EUR/C-IS/700/73.e. Ispra, Italy: Commission of the European Community, EURATOM Joint Research Center Ispra (1973); and in Superconducting Machines and Devices. Large Systems Applications, S. Foner and B. Schwartz (eds.). New York: Plenum Publishing Company (197?).

·       Colloquial Considerations on the Energy Maze. EUR/C-IS/713/73.e. Ispra, Italy: Commission of the European Community, EURATOM Joint Research Center Ispra (1973).

·       Ingegneria del Sistema Energetico. In: Enciclopedia dell'Ingegneria. ?: Istituto Editoriale Internazionale (1973).

·       Idrogeno: presente e futuro. L'informazione industriale XXX(3-4):73-81 (1974).

·       Hydrogen: Mechanisms and Strategies of Market Penetration (coauthor A.S. Manne). RR-74-4. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1974); and Chemical Economy and Engineering Review 6(9):10-6 (1974).

·       Il metano come vetore energetico principale in un modello di strategia da adottar per l'approvvigionamento energetico dell'Europa (coauthors C. Rinaldi and A. Schneiders). GAS XXIV(2):41-50 (1974).

·       Hydrogen and nuclear energy. Journal of the British Nuclear Energy Society 13(4):353-362 (1974).

·       Transport and Storage of Energy. RR-75-38. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1975).

·       Primary energy substitution model: on the interaction between energy and society. Chemical Economy and Engineering Review 7(8):9-14 (1975).

·       Vodorod i yadernaya energiya. Atomnaya Teknika za Rubezhom 10:28-32 (1975).

·       Méchanismes et stratégies de pénétration de marché pour l'hydrogène. Revue de l'Energie 27(279):15-30 (1976).

·       Geoengineering and the energy island. In Second Status Report of the IIASA Project on Energy Systems, E. Häfele et al. (eds.). RR-76-1. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1976); and Bollettino degli ingegneri XXV(8-9):3-10 (1977).

·       On Hydrogen and Energy Systems. RR-76-2. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1976).

·       On Geoengineering and the CO2 Problem. RM-76-17. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1976); and Climatic Change 1:59-68 (1977).

·       Sources d'énergie primaire appropriées à la production d'hydrogène. Revue de l'Energie 27(280):102-112 (1976).

·       From the Primeval Soup to the World Government: An Essay on Comparative Evolution. PP-76-5. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1976); and Anticipation 23:24-27 (1976).

·       Dieci alla dodici. Rivista IBM 13(1):11-18 (1977).

·       Sind die bisherigen Energie-Berechnungen falsch? Bild der Wissenschaft 7:68-77 (1977).

·       On strategies and fate. Physics in Technology 8(4):157-162 (1977).

·       On Progress and Providence. PP-77-10. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1977).

·       A Post Mortem Technology Assessment of the Spinning Wheel: The Last Thousand Years. PP-77-12. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1977); and Technological Forecasting and Social Change 13:91-93 (1979).

·       Die Energie-Insel. In Grosstechnische Energienutzung und menschlicher Lebensraum, K. Strandt and H. Porias (eds.). Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Technical University of Vienna (1977).

·       Primary energy substitution models: on the interaction between energy and society. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 10:345-356 (1977).

·       Energy Systems - The Broader Context. RM-78-18. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1978); and Technological Forecasting and Social Change 14:191-203 (1979.

·       Genetic Engineering and the Energy System: How to Make Ends Meet. RM-78-62. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1978); and Technological Forecasting and Social Change 15:79-86 (1979).

·       Nonelectrical application of HTGRs. Annals of Nuclear Energy 5(8-10):423-431. Oxford:Pergamon Press (1978).

·       Constructive solutions to the CO2 problem. In Man's Impact on Climate, W. Bach, J. Pankrath, and W. Kellogg (eds.). New York: Elsevier (1979).

·       Multicompetition and the diffusion of new technology in the energy system. Chemical Economy and Engineering Review 11(4):7-13 (1979).

·       Engenharia genética e o sistema de energia: como coincidir as metas. Energia - Revista Tecnológica Brasileira 1(3):51-57 (1979).

·       On Energy and Agriculture: From Hunting-Gathering to Landless Farming. RR-79-10. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1979).

·       Problemi strategici dell'energia. Quaderni del Giornale di Fisica III(5): 3-16 (1979).

·       The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model (coauthor N. Nakicenovic). RR-79-13. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1979).

·       Energia e agricoltura. Astrofisma. Rivista scientifica e universitara Bresciana 5(18):19-22 (1980).

·       The evolution of the energy systmes and the aircraft industry. Chemical Economy and Engineering Review ?(?):??-?? (1980).

·       On energy systems in historical perspective. The 1980 Bernard Gregory Lecture. Geneva: CERN (1980).

·       Struttura del sistemi energetici: analisi e previsioni. Energia e Industria. Quaderno della rivista progress. Casa di Risparmi e Depositi di Prato (1980).

·       Wieviel Öl kostet unser täglich Brot? Bild der Wissenschaft 17(2):40-48 (1980).

·       Measures of CO2 control. Experientia. Monthly Journal of Pure and Applied Science 36(7):806-7 (1980).

·       Prospettive delle energie alternative, con particolare riferimento all'energia solare, nel quadro dell'evoluzione storica dei sistemi energetici. Energia Alternative e Risparmio Energetico. Associazione Industriali della Provincia di Perugia (AIP) (1981).

·       Sistemi energetici: dinamica ed evoluzione. Notiziario Tecnico AMMA XXXVI (5):2-5 (1981).

·       La società che impara. Sviluppo e Organizzazione 63:4-14 (1981).

·       Society as a Learning System: Discovery, Invention and Innovation Cycles Revisited. RR-81-29. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change 18:267-282 (1980); and Syracuse Scholar 3(2):21-37 (1982).

·       Invention et innovation: les cycles revisités. Futuribles 53:43-58 (1982).

·       The long-term dynamics of energy markets modeled in terms of ecologically competing structures. In Proceedings of the 10th IMACS World Congress on Systems Simulation and Scientific Computation, ?? (ed.). Publ? and city? (1982).

·       Die magische Entwicklungskurve . Bild der Wissenschaft 19(10):114-128 (1982).

·       Killer Stories - A System Exploration in Mortal Diseases. PP-82-7. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1982).

·       When Will Hydrogen Come? WP-82-123. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1982).

·       Recession 1982. Ten More Years to Go? WP-83-35. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1983).

·       On the Beauty of Sex and the Truth of Mathematics. PP-83-2. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1983).

·       The Automobile in a System Context: the Past 80 Years and the Next 20 Years. RR-83-18. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change 23:3-23 (1983).

·       Innovation: A Vigorous River With High Banks. WP-83-107. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1983).

·       On a Fifty Years Pulsation in Human Affairs: Analysis of Some Physical Indicators. PP-83-5. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1983).

·       Innovation, Industry and Economy - A Top-Down Analysis. PP-83-6. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1983).

·       Innovazione, Industria ed Economia - Una Analisi d'Inviluppo. PP-83-6a. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (in italian) (1983).

·       On the internal logic of energy islands. In Nuclear Technologies in a Sustainable Energy System, G. S. Bauer and A. McDonald (eds.). Berlin-Heidelberg-New York: Springer Verlag (1983).

·       On the Role of Science in the Postindustrial Society. "Logos", the Empire Builder. RR-84-11. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change 24:197-206 (1983).

·       Recession 1983: ten more years to go? Technological Forecasting and Social Change 24:331-342 (1983).

·       On the Long-Term History of Energy Markets and the Chances for Natural Gas. WP-84-39. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1984).

·       Literacy vs. Illiteracy. WP-84-62. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1984).

·       L'era del metano. Italgas Gruppo 16(3):15-19 (1984).

·       Nuclear plants and nuclear niches: on the generation of nuclear energy during the last twenty years. Nuclear Science and Engineering 90:521-526 (1985).

·       Provvidenza, progresso o evoluzione? Italgas 17(4):20-23 (1985).

·       When will hydrogen come? Int. J. Hydrogen Energy 10(4):215-219 (1985).

·       Swings, cycles and the global economy. New Scientist 1454:12-15 (1985).

·       Time Patterns of Technological Choice Options. WP-85-86. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1985).

·       On Time and Crime: A Quantitative Analysis of the Time Pattern of Social and Criminal Activities. WP-85-84. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1985).

·       Renewable Energies in a Historical Context. PP-85-2. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1985).

·       Action Curves and Clockwork Geniuses. WP-85-74. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1985).

·       Competizioni energetiche. Dimensione Energia 13:56-59 (1985).

·       Environmental Problems and Technological Opportunities. WP-85-80. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1985); and Technological Forecasting and Social Change 30(1):1-4 (1986).

·       Central Place Theory and the Dominance of Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier. WP-85-73. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1985); and in Hydrogen Energy Progress VI. Proceedings, Vol. 1, T. N. Vezirogiu, N. Getoff, and P. Weinzierl (eds.). Oxford: Pergamon Press (1986).

·       Automobiles: dans dix ans ce sera la saturation! Le Temps Stratégique Printemps ?:57-64 (1986).

·       La società che impara. Italgas Gruppo 18(1):32-37 (1986).

·       Fifty-year pulsation in human affairs: analysis of some physical indicators. Futures 17(3): 376-88 (1986).

·       L'automobile en danger de mort. Ou Futuribles interpellé. Futuribles 99:27-38 (1986).

·       The Future of Hydrogen: An Analysis at World Level, With Special Look at Air Transport. WP-86-25. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (1986); and International Journal of Hydrogen Energy (forthcoming).

·       Evoluzione probabile nei prossimi vent'anni del "sistema" italiano e dei principali sotto-sistemi in cui si articola. Tavola rotonda, La Società Italiana in Trasformazione al traguardo del duemila, C. Filippi, cura red. Centre Nazionale di Prevenzione e Difesa Sociale, Milano (1986).

·       The Future. Prepared for a special evening seminar at the Summer Course on "Synergetics and Dynammical Instabilities", organized by the Italian Physical Society, Varenna, Italy, June 24-July4, 1986 (forthcoming proceedings).

·       Trabalhos Não Publicados

·       L'ordine nel caos: strutture semplici nei sistemi economici, sociali ed individuali, e loro uso per la previsione.

·       Glimpses into the Pre-Programmed Society: On Energy, Invention, Innovation and Other Things. Sperry UNivac Management Course, St. Paul-de Vence, France (1981).

·       Never Despair. Presentation at the UK Press Seminar organized by Sperry Univac in St. Paul-de-Vence, France, July 20-24, 1982.

·       On Energy Systems in Historical Perspective: The Last Hundred Years and the Next Fifty (1983).

·       From Stars to Galaxies: Note on the Long-Term Evolution of Human Settlements (1983).

·       Dying in Tune: On Economic Cycles, Homicides, Suicides and Their Modes.

·       Penetration Processes: the Deep Past.

·       On a Natural Gas Way to Heaven (1984).

·       Some Phenomenological Observations on Urban Dynamics (1985).

·       The Hydrogen Tree: A Challenge to Biologist Ingenuity to Solve the Problem of Competitive Solar Energy. Invited Paper, Beijing International Symposium of Hydrogen Systems, May 7-11, 1985.

·       The Future of Natural Gas: A Darwinian Analysis. Presentation at the Task Force Meeting The Methane Age, organized jointly by IIASA and the Hungarian Committee for Applied Systems Analysis, Sopron, Hungary, May 13-16, 1986.

·       Intelligence at Work: Life Cycles for Painters, Writers, and Criminals. Invited paper. Conference on The Evolutionary Biology of Intelligence, organized by the NATO Advanced Study Institute, Poppi, Italy, July 8-20, 1986.

·       Infrastructures for Movement. Prepared for the AMerican Academy of Engineering Workshop on Infrastructures, Cape Cod, August 11-13, 1986.

·       Hard Patterns in Soft Systems: A PhenomenologicalAnalysis of Social and Economic Systems Using Ecological Models. Prepared for a Symposium on The Physics of Structure and Complexity, International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy, September 1-5, 1986.

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